Week Two Progress Report - Charting and Predicting Progress

After two weeks of charting my weight, I have enough data to give some idea of how fast I may be approaching my goal.

In the chart to the left, the light blue bars represent actual loss. The dark line represents a trend, calculated using the equation you see at the top right. I chose this equation based simply on gut feeling rather than any special knowledge I have of this sort of thing. The resulting line simply looked like it may represent the diminishing returns of losing weight over a period of time. It's hard to tell by looking at this particular graph why the trend looked appropriate. Here is what helped me make the decision:



Notice in this 6 month forecast there is a bit of a curve to the trendline. It does seem steep - six months is too short of a time period to lose this much weight. I'm thinking this only because LAST time I lost that fast, I packed half of it back on!






So, I'd like to get to goal as close as possible to my 52nd progress report. It divides up to just about 2.4 lbs a week on average. I'm currently averaging 5.6 lbs a week. This average will fall, mostly because I lost water weight in the first few days. Notice the erratic numbers in the first graph?

So, 11.2 lbs lost in the first month. My chart tells me I'll lose another 11 lbs or so. Think I'll prove it right or wrong? Only time will tell. If the equation is good, then with more data I get closer to making a decent prediction!

Stay tuned...